Deutsche Bank surprises with daring crypto forecast

1 year ago on December 17, 2019

Deutsche Bank expects the number of users of crypto currencies to grow to 200 million Hodlers in the coming decade. Meanwhile, the trend towards a cashless society is continuing.

Deutsche Bank dares to take a look into the future. In the current issue of its research magazine "Konzept", Germany's largest money house predicts the year 2030. In its report, the bank notes, among other things, a decline in confidence in Fiat money as a result of the expansive monetary policy of the central banks. This could lead to greater demand for alternative currencies such as Bitcoin and Co. in the coming years.

Higher inflation will tend to make bond yields very uncertain, especially compared to today's lows, which are close to record-breaking […]. Finally, it is possible that inflation will increasingly be embedded in our system and that doubts will arise about the sustainability of paper money. Demand for alternative currencies is therefore likely to be significantly higher by 2030,

The fate of Fiat money is linked to the central banks' efforts to reconcile growing government debt with rising yields on government bonds. This is the "multi-billion dollar (or Bitcoin) question" for the coming decade.

Deutsche Bank notes growing blockchain adoption

Despite the inflation problem with Fiat money, a replacement of US dollars and Co. by crypto currencies is anything but carved in stone. So far, Bitcoin & Co. is primarily a supplement to existing currencies which, despite some advantages that cannot be dismissed, have not yet found widespread use. In order for this to happen, crypto currencies would have to overcome three hurdles:

  1. Legitimization by states and regulatory authorities to ensure course stability
  2. Support from payment service providers, credit card companies and merchants for global reach
  3. Ensuring security against cyber attacks and large-scale power outages

Nevertheless, the German bank notes a growing acceptance of Bitcoin and Co. among the world population – and in this respect draws the popular comparison with the spread of the Internet since its inception.

Should this development be confirmed, the number of users of crypto currencies would increase to up to 300 million over the next 10 years. Furthermore, it is to be expected that Bitcoin will face competition from another mass-produced crypto currency:

If we look at the coming decade, it would not be surprising if a new and common crypto currency were to emerge unexpectedly,

Deutsche Bank speculates in its outlook.

Despite this insight, the German industry leader has so far had no – at least official – ambitions to act as a crypto depositary:

Deutsche Bank is observing the issue, but there are currently no plans to enter the crypto currency custody business,

the company told BTC-ECHO.

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